Dealing with uncertainty

Why estimating is hard and what you can do about it

Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?

An analogy.

Everything is hypothesis driven design

I think that everything can be seen as hypothesis driven design. The real question is whether or not we write down the assumptions behind the design decisions we make and measure outcomes.

Demos, Prototypes, and MVPs

Figuring out the “minimum” version of your product is an art to itself, and out of scope for this article. Suffice to say that MVPs should be fully functional, and capable of delivering real value on their own. As such, MVPs require significantly more investment (time, mostly, but also money) than demos or prototypes. Think months (or years!) for an MVP, vs days/weeks for demos/prototypes.

Making Good Decisions Means Taking Clear Aim

Once you acknowledge that you’re basically making a guess no matter what, you’re emboldened to factor what you already know into your decision-making process.

Why software projects take longer than you think: a statistical model

Anyone who built software for a while knows that estimating how long something is going to take is hard. It’s hard to come up with an unbiased estimate of how long something will take, when fundamentally the work in itself is about solving something. One pet theory I’ve had for a really long time, is that some of this is really just a statistical artifact.